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    Latin American Economic Outlook 2014

Latin America is currently experiencing a slowdown in growth due to the downturn in external demand and the structural limitations of its economies. Although the slowdown is only moderate for the moment, there are reasons to believe that it could be persistent if there is no policy action to raise the growth capacity of the region’s economies. Given this scenario, this chapter analyses three important aspects and discusses suitable policies for reducing the associated vulnerabilities. 

First, it documents the changes in the external context and their consequences for the dynamics of external demand, considering some of the vulnerabilities resulting from the pattern of trade specialization in the region and the limited ability of domestic demand to sustain growth. It also analyses the potential risks to financial and economic stability in the region’s financial systems amid the high uncertainty regarding the future direction of US monetary policy and liquidity in international capital markets. 

Finally, the chapter looks at how fiscal policy and the fiscal space are being changed. Institutions and regulations that can facilitate the sustainable creation of fiscal space are particularly important for the Latin American economies. Governments must do more than merely increase their revenue; they must also invest more efficiently and effectively to respond to new needs and demands.

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Doing Business in Latin America: Are You There Yet?

European companies learn about investment and trade opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean

As one of the fastest-growing regions in the world, Latin America and the Caribbean offers interesting trade and investment opportunities for Spanish companies seeking to boost their international operations, according to private sectorspecialists from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 

IDB President Luis Alberto Moreno and Enrique V. Iglesias, Secretary-General of the Ibero-American Community, inaugurated the event, “Opportunities with the Private Sector Group of the Inter-American Development Bank”, jointly organized by the Spanish Institute for Commerce (ICEX). More than 150 representatives of Spanish firms gathered at the Bank’s new Europe office in Madrid for the seminar, and were joined by government officials, including Spain’s State Secretary of Trade, as well as representatives of academic institutions.

Bank officials explained how the IDB works with private sector companies of all sizes, providing financing and technical assistance to help them take advantage of the many opportunities for investment that exist in the region and that contribute to economic and social development. They include projects in such areas as infrastructure, energy, transportation, and water and sanitation, tourism development, fishing, agriculture and food processing, information technology, environment, health and life sciences, among others.

The Bank is particularly interested in working with companies seeking to enhance economic and social development in the LAC region, such as those that facilitate access to basic services, that improve the environment, that provide access to credit and that contribute to regional and global integration, among others.

As part of its efforts to help mid-size companies expand into international markets, the IDB also provides financing and guarantees for companies engaged in international trade, and is creating ConnectAmericas, a platform to facilitatelinks between businesses with potential trade partners and investors and provide data on international trade and access to finance. In addition, ConnectAmericas will support the implementation of the SME Iberoamerican Charter approved in the XXII Iberoamerican Summit held in Cadiz on November 17.

During his visit, President Moreno announced that the IDB will provide commercial banks with $70 million for expanding their lines of credit to firms wishing to export or invest abroad, as well as $350 million in guarantees through local banks to companies that participate in international bidding for the provision of services through the IDB’s Trade Finance Facilitation Program.

Moreno signed several colaboration agreements with Spanish and European organizations. The IDB and the EU-LAC Foundation signed a memorandum of understanding to deepen ties between the European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), by sharing knowledge, carrying out joint studies and seminars, and working together to stage EU-LAC Business Summits.

Telefónica, S.A. and the IDB agreed to work together on education, starting with a specific program to ensure universal access to quality education for all Brazilians, and on the issues of sustainable cities, broadband connectivity, business accelerators and citizen security.

The IDB also agreed with the IE Business School to promote sustainable banking in Latin America through scholarships for banking employees through the IDB’s beyondBanking program, and to work together on case studies related to mid-size companies’ efforts to internationalize their operations.

Fundación Santillana and the IDB agreed to carry out and disseminate joint studies on topics related to education,starting with a studyof best practices related to the integration of technology in education, with a specific focus on countries that have performed well on the OECD´s PISA achievement tests.

Fundación MAPFRE also started a partnershipwith the IDB to work on improvingroad safety, and to develop joint projects for youth, art and culture in Latin America.

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BUSINESS CLIMATE IN LATIN AMERICA ROSE TO IT`S HIGHEST LEVEL IN 18 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS..!

according to the indicator released today by a private economic research center named, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) of Brazil and the University of Munich.

The economic sentiment indicator called Latin America in January stood at 5.5 points above last October's 5.2 points and 5.0 points in January 2012, according to the quarterly survey conducted by the two institutions between 138 specialists from 18 countries.

The indicator was not as high measured from 5.6 points in July 2011, before it fell to 4.4 points in October 2011 as a result of the worsening of the international economic crisis.

Good expectation
According to the study, the business climate rose between October 2012 and January this year, mainly driven by the expectation that the situation will improve, since the evaluation of the current situation deteriorated slightly.

While the indicator called Outlook, which assesses specialists projections for the next six months, up from 5.3 points in October to 6.0 points in January, the Current Situation Indicator, which assesses the situation, down from 5.1 points 4.9 points over the same period.

Although the business climate improved in general in Latin America, in some countries the situation deteriorated * between October last year and January 2013, mainly in Venezuela, where the rate fell from 3.4 to 1.5 points; Ecuador, which fell from 5.0 to 4.0 points, and Bolivia, with a drop of 6.0 to 5.4 points.

In Brazil, the largest regional economy, the Economic Climate Index fell slightly in October from 6.1 points to 5.9 points in January.

Paraguay and Peru last month shared the best rated country status for business, with 7.0 points, followed by Chile (6.6), Uruguay (6.3), Brazil (5.9), Mexico (5.7), Bolivia (5.4), Colombia ( 5.3) and Argentina (5.2).

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PRESIDENT OF THE WORLD BANK PRAISES PERUVIAN ECONOMY SUCCESS FOR TRANSCENDING THEIR OWN BORDERS

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said yesterday a meeting with the ambassador of Peru in the United States, Harold Forsyth, at the headquarters of the international financial organization with the purpose of reviewing the agenda of cooperation between Peru and the Bank.

Jim Yong Kim World Bank President & H. Forsyth Peruvian Embassador in Wshington DC.

"The president of Peru, Ollanta Humala, is conducting a success story that transcends beyond their own borders and enjoying a well-deserved international recognition," said Kim, who was accompanied by Hasan Tuluy, vice president for Latin America and the Caribbean region, and Susan Goldmark, director for Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Venezuela Bank.

Kim was pleased with the choice of Peru to host the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) in 2015, one of the most significant events on the world because it brings together the major economies the planet and has the same importance as the APEC forum.

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LATIN AMERICA - COMMUNITY BUILDING ACROSS BORDERS TO ASSIST EACH-OTHER

Alongside the tentative formal efforts at economic and political integration, people are also increasingly bringing the region together. A recent uptick in intra-regional movement—through travel, study, and immigration—has allowed Latin Americans to get to know each other better, and in the process bind together both their communities and their economies.

Millions of Latin Americans head nearby for their vacations, enjoying Patagonia, Machu Picchu, and the Galapagos Islands, among other places. Brazilians are the most active international travelers (in sheer numbers) with 1.5 million people (30 percent of their travelers) headed to locales in Central or South America. Latin American students are also increasingly studying abroad within the region. More than 50 percent of Chile’s international students were from neighbors (Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador), with most opting to study professions such as business, health, and the social sciences.

Immigration too has shifted. Today nearly two thirds of all South American immigrants come from neighboring countries (compared to just a quarter forty years ago). Argentina and Chile have received the most immigrants, with 70 and 90 percent coming from neighboring countries. Whole communities of Bolivians live in Argentina, Brazilians in Bolivia and Paraguay, and Colombians and Peruvians in Ecuador. Further north, over four hundred thousand Nicaraguans live in Costa Rica.

These large foreign communities can at times cause tensions—such as the half a million Brazilians (nicknamed braziguayos) living in Paraguay. These mostly agricultural workers immigrated in the 1960s, purchasing some of the best land for low prices, earning the envy and at times ire of Paraguayan natives. Ecuadorians have also clashed with the hundreds of thousands of Colombians living within their borders (which they associate with rising crime rates); a Facultad LatinoAmericana de Ciencias Sociales study reported that 64 percent of Ecuadorians held a bad opinion of Colombians.

Along with the size of the flows, the profile of immigrants has also been changing. While once dominated by low skilled laborers seeking better opportunities, at least half of today’s migrants to Chile, Mexico, and Panama have twelve or more years of schooling. 

In response to the changing flows, many countries have adjusted their policies to allow for foreigners to own land (as in the case of Mexico) or prohibiting discrimination on the basis of origin (as in Argentina). Some countries are even allowing foreign nationals to use their national identity cards next door, waving visa restrictions, and allowing social security and other accrued benefits to be transferred home. While only four Latin American countries allowed dual citizenship in 1990, at least eleven do today.

The informal intersections of Latin Americans across the region pressure changes in government policies and drive Latin America’s integration. Assisted by increased travel options, relaxed visa restrictions, and better communication technologies more and more citizens have made the decision to move within the region. Strengthening ties between countries through community networks, Latin America’s people are and will be just as important for regional integration as the formal treaties their governments create.

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